Modeling drinking behavior progression in youth with cross-sectional data: Solving an under-identified probabilistic discrete event system

Xingdi Hu, Xinguang Chen, Robert L. Cook, Ding Geng Chen, Chukwuemeka Okafor

Producción científica: Articlerevisión exhaustiva

2 Citas (Scopus)

Resumen

Background: The probabilistic discrete event systems (PDES) method provides a promising approach to study dynamics of underage drinking using cross-sectional data. However, the utility of this approach is often limited because the constructed PDES model is often non-identifiable. The purpose of the current study is to attempt a new method to solve the model. Methods: A PDES-based model of alcohol use behavior was developed with four progression stages (never-drinkers [ND], light/moderate-drinker [LMD], heavy-drinker [HD], and ex-drinker [XD]) linked with 13 possible transition paths. We tested the proposed model with data for participants aged 12-21 from the 2012 National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH). The Moore-Penrose (M-P) generalized inverse matrix method was applied to solve the proposed model. Results: Annual transitional probabilities by age groups for the 13 drinking progression pathways were successfully estimated with the M-P generalized inverse matrix approach. Result from our analysis indicates an inverse “J” shape curve characterizing pattern of experimental use of alcohol from adolescence to young adulthood. We also observed a dramatic increase for the initiation of LMD and HD after age 18 and a sharp decline in quitting light and heavy drinking. Conclusion: Our findings are consistent with the developmental perspective regarding the dynamics of underage drinking, demonstrating the utility of the M-P method in obtaining a unique solution for the partially-observed PDES drinking behavior model. The M-P approach we tested in this study will facilitate the use of the PDES approach to examine many health behaviors with the widely available cross-sectional data.

Idioma originalEnglish (US)
Páginas (desde-hasta)93-100
Número de páginas8
PublicaciónCurrent HIV Research
Volumen14
N.º2
DOI
EstadoPublished - mar 1 2016

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Infectious Diseases
  • Virology

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