Selective detection of histologically aggressive prostate cancer: An Early Detection Research Network Prediction model to reduce unnecessary prostate biopsies with validation in the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial

Stephen B. Williams, Simpa Salami, Meredith M. Regan, Donna P. Ankerst, John T. Wei, Mark A. Rubin, Ian M. Thompson, Martin G. Sanda

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

19 Scopus citations

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Limited survival benefit and excess treatment because of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening in randomized trials suggests a need for more restricted selection of prostate biopsy candidates by discerning risk of histologically aggressive versus indolent cancer before biopsy. METHODS: Subjects undergoing first prostate biopsy enrolled in a multicenter, prospective cohort of the National Cancer Institute Early Detection Research Network (N = 635) were analyzed to develop a model for predicting histologically aggressive prostate cancers. The control arm of the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial (N = 3833) was used to validate the generalization of the predictive model. RESULTS: The Early Detection Research Network cohort was comprised of men among whom 57% had no cancer, 14% had indolent cancer, and 29% had aggressive cancer. Age, body mass index, family history of prostate cancer, abnormal digital rectal examination (DRE), and PSA density (PSAD) were associated with aggressive cancer (all P <.001). The Early Detection Research Network model outperformed PSA alone in predicting aggressive cancer (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.81 vs 0.71, P <.01). Model validation in the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial cohort accurately identified men at low (<10%) risk of aggressive cancer for whom biopsy could be averted (AUC = 0.78; 95% confidence interval, 0.75-0.80). Under criteria from the Early Detection Research Network model, prostate biopsy can be restricted to men with PSAD >0.1 ng/mL/cc or abnormal DRE. When PSAD is <0.1 ng/mL/cc, family history or obesity can identify biopsy candidates. CONCLUSIONS: A predictive model incorporating age, family history, obesity, PSAD, and DRE elucidates criteria whereby 1/4 of prostate biopsies can be averted while retaining high sensitivity in detecting aggressive prostate cancer. Cancer 2011.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)2651-2658
Number of pages8
JournalCancer
Volume118
Issue number10
DOIs
StatePublished - May 15 2012

Keywords

  • biopsy
  • clinically significant
  • indolent
  • prostate cancer

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Oncology
  • Cancer Research

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