Prediagnostic prostate-specific antigen kinetics and the risk of biopsy progression in active surveillance patients

Objective: To analyze the association between prediagnostic prostate-specific antigen kinetics and the risk of biopsy progression in prostate cancer patients on active surveillance, and to study the effect of prediagnostic prostate-specific antigen values on the predictive performance of prostate-specific antigen velocity and prostate-specific antigen doubling time. Methods: The study included 137 active surveillance patients with two or more prediagnostic prostate-specific antigen levels measured over a period of at least 3 months. Two sets of analyses were carried out. First, the association between prostate-specific antigen kinetics calculated using only the prediagnostic prostate-specific antigen values and the risk of biopsy progression was studied. Second, using the same cohort of patients, the predictive value of prostate-specific antigen kinetics calculated using only post-diagnostic prostate-specific antigens and compared with that of prostate-specific antigen kinetics based on both pre- and post-diagnostic prostate-specific antigen levels was analyzed. Results: Of 137 patients included in the analysis, 37 (27%) had biopsy progression over a median follow-up period of 3.2 years. Prediagnostic prostate-specific antigen velocity of more than 2 ng/mL/year and 3 ng/mL/year was statistically significantly associated with the risk of future biopsy progression. However, after adjustment for baseline prostate-specific antigen density, these associations were no longer significant. None of the tested prostate-specific antigen kinetics based on combined pre- and post-diagnostic prostate-specific antigen values were statistically significantly associated with the risk of biopsy progression. Conclusions: Historical prediagnostic prostate-specific antigens seems to be not clinically useful in patients diagnosed with low-risk prostate cancer on active surveillance.