TY - JOUR
T1 - Physical medicine and rehabilitation workforce study
T2 - The supply of and demand for physiatrists
AU - Hogan, Paul F.
AU - Dobson, Al
AU - Haynie, Brent
AU - DeLisa, Joel A.
AU - Gans, Bruce
AU - Grabois, Martin
AU - LaBan, Myron M.
AU - Melvin, John L.
AU - Walsh, Nicolas E.
N1 - Funding Information:
tation HIS ARTICLE has 2 major purposes. First, it is intended T to describe the model we developed of the supply of, and the demand for, physical medicine and rehabilitation (PM&R) specialists. The methods, assumptions, and data underlying the model are presented, along with its major components. Second, From Lewin-VHI, Inc., Fairfax, VA. Submitted for publication August 31, 1995. Accepted in revised form October l, 1995. This study of the supply and demand conditions for physiatrists was jointly sponsored by the American Academy of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation, the Association of AcademicP hysiatrists, the American Board of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation, and the American Physiatric Education Council. No commercial party having a direct financial interest in the results of the research supporting this article has or will confer a benefit upon the authors or upon any organization with which the authors are associated. Reprint requests to Paul F. Hogan, CPhil, Vice President, Lewin-VHI, 9302 Lee Highway, Suite 500, Fairfax, VA. © 1996 by the AmericanC ongress of Rehabilitation Medicinea nd the American Academy of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation 0003-9993/96/7701-372953.00/0 it presents the results of our analysis of the supply and demand under several scenarios regarding market conditions, using the model, along with an overall assessment of the future market for the services of physiatrists. In the analysis, we apply the model to answer various "what if" questions to gain useful insights concerning future market conditions. From the analysis, we obtain an overall assessment of supply and demand conditions for physiatrists, and we suggest policies to influence and adapt to those conditions.
PY - 1996/1
Y1 - 1996/1
N2 - Objective: Analysis, results, and implications of a supply and demand workforce model for physical medicine and rehabilitation. Explicit issues addressed include: (1) the supply implications of maintaining current (1994- 1995) output of physiatrists from residency programs; (2) the implications of continued growth in managed care on the demand for the services of physiatrists; (3) likely future supply and demand conditions; and (4) strategies to adapt to future conditions. Design: A workforce model of the supply and demand for physiatrists was developed. Parameters of the model are estimated using econometric models and by applying the judgments of a consensus panel. The model evaluated several different scenarios regarding managed care growth, competition from other providers and other factors. Results: Based on the analysis, physiatrists will continue to be in excess demand through the year 2000. More aggressive growth in managed care can affect this result. Conclusions: Based on an overall assessment of supply and demand conditions, and under the assumption that the supply of new entrants each year remains in the range of the 19941995 levels, demand for physiatrists will continue to exceed supply, on average, through the year 2000. Excess supply has, and will, emerge in selected geographic areas. If the profession is successful in informing the market regarding the advantages of physiatry, the profession can continue to grow without experiencing excess supply, in the aggregate, for the foreseeable future.
AB - Objective: Analysis, results, and implications of a supply and demand workforce model for physical medicine and rehabilitation. Explicit issues addressed include: (1) the supply implications of maintaining current (1994- 1995) output of physiatrists from residency programs; (2) the implications of continued growth in managed care on the demand for the services of physiatrists; (3) likely future supply and demand conditions; and (4) strategies to adapt to future conditions. Design: A workforce model of the supply and demand for physiatrists was developed. Parameters of the model are estimated using econometric models and by applying the judgments of a consensus panel. The model evaluated several different scenarios regarding managed care growth, competition from other providers and other factors. Results: Based on the analysis, physiatrists will continue to be in excess demand through the year 2000. More aggressive growth in managed care can affect this result. Conclusions: Based on an overall assessment of supply and demand conditions, and under the assumption that the supply of new entrants each year remains in the range of the 19941995 levels, demand for physiatrists will continue to exceed supply, on average, through the year 2000. Excess supply has, and will, emerge in selected geographic areas. If the profession is successful in informing the market regarding the advantages of physiatry, the profession can continue to grow without experiencing excess supply, in the aggregate, for the foreseeable future.
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U2 - 10.1016/S0003-9993(96)90228-2
DO - 10.1016/S0003-9993(96)90228-2
M3 - Article
C2 - 8554483
AN - SCOPUS:0030022811
SN - 0003-9993
VL - 77
SP - 95
EP - 99
JO - Archives of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation
JF - Archives of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation
IS - 1
ER -