Epidemiology of heart failure stages in middle-aged black people in the community: Prevalence and prognosis in the atherosclerosis risk in communities study

BACKGROUND: Black individuals have a higher burden of risk factors for heart failure (HF) and subclinical left ventricular remodeling. METHODS AND RESULTS: We evaluated 1871 Black participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study cohort who attended a routine examination (1993–1996, median age 58 years) when they underwent echocardiography. We estimated the prevalences of 4 HF stages: (1) Stage 0: no risk factors; (2) Stage A: presence of HF risk factors (hypertension, diabetes mellitus, obesity, smoking, dyslipidemia, coronary artery disease without clinical myocardial infarction), no cardiac structural/ functional abnormality; (3) Stage B: presence of prior myocardial infarction, systolic dysfunction, left ventricular hypertrophy, regional wall motion abnormality, or left ventricular enlargement; and (4) Stage C/D: prevalent HF. We assessed the incidence of clinical HF, atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease events, and all-cause mortality on follow-up according to HF stage. The prevalence of HF Stages 0, A, B, and C/D were 3.8%, 20.6%, 67.0%, and 8.6%, respectively, at baseline. On follow-up (median 19.0 years), 309 participants developed overt HF, 390 incurred new-onset cardiovascular disease events, and 651 individuals died. Incidence rates per 1000 person-years for overt HF, cardiovascular disease events, and death, respectively, were Stage 0, 2.4, 0.8, and 7.6; Stage A, 7.4, 9.7, and 13.5; Stage B 13.6, 15.9, and 22.0. Stage B HF was associated with a 1.5-to 2-fold increased adjusted risk of HF, cardiovascular disease events and death compared with Stages 0/A. CONCLUSIONS: In our large community-based sample of Black individuals, we observed a strikingly high prevalence of Stage B HF in middle age that was a marker of high cardiovascular morbidity and mortality.