Derivation and validation of a prediction rule for identifying heavy consumers of alcohol

Michael J Lichtenstein, M. C. Burger, J. W G Yarnell, P. C. Elwood, P. M. Sweetnam

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

8 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Using two population-based cohorts of men aged 45-59, we sought to derive and validate a prediction rule for identifying heavy consumers of alcohol. Eighty-five percent of eligible men on electoral rolls in Caerphilly, Wales (derivation set, N = 2512) and 90% of eligible men on the practice lists of 16 Speedwell, England, general practitioners participated (validation set, N = 2348). Alcohol consumption was assessed by questionnaire with heavy alcohol consumption defined as the top 10% of the Caerphilly population's alcohol usage (>525 cc ethanol per week). The prediction rule, Score = (mean corpuscular volume x 1.00) + (body mass index x 0.31) + (systolic blood pressure x 0.08) + (HDL-cholesterol x 9.24) + (fasting triglyceride x 2.20) was derived by multiple linear regression in the Caerphilly cohort and validated in the Speedwell cohort. Comparing the lower 20% of the Score distribution with the upper 5%, likelihood ratios increased from 0.15 to 5.29 and 0.06 to 7.42 in the Caerphilly and Speedwell cohorts, respectively. Having a score of 136.30 or greater yielded a relative risk of being a heavy drinker of 23.1 (95% CI = 10.1-53.0) in Caerphilly and 99.3 (95% CI = 12.8-769.5) in Speedwell. The derived prediction rule is a valid diagnostic aid to help clinicians identify heavy alcohol consumers.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)626-630
Number of pages5
JournalAlcoholism: Clinical and Experimental Research
Volume13
Issue number5
StatePublished - 1989
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

Veronica
Alcohols
Alcohol Drinking
Blood Pressure
Erythrocyte Indices
Wales
England
General Practitioners
HDL Cholesterol
Population
Blood pressure
Linear Models
Fasting
Triglycerides
Body Mass Index
Ethanol
Linear regression

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Medicine (miscellaneous)
  • Toxicology

Cite this

Derivation and validation of a prediction rule for identifying heavy consumers of alcohol. / Lichtenstein, Michael J; Burger, M. C.; Yarnell, J. W G; Elwood, P. C.; Sweetnam, P. M.

In: Alcoholism: Clinical and Experimental Research, Vol. 13, No. 5, 1989, p. 626-630.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Lichtenstein, Michael J ; Burger, M. C. ; Yarnell, J. W G ; Elwood, P. C. ; Sweetnam, P. M. / Derivation and validation of a prediction rule for identifying heavy consumers of alcohol. In: Alcoholism: Clinical and Experimental Research. 1989 ; Vol. 13, No. 5. pp. 626-630.
@article{53a1ee0b22d745a7ba5f1528b8ac4e17,
title = "Derivation and validation of a prediction rule for identifying heavy consumers of alcohol",
abstract = "Using two population-based cohorts of men aged 45-59, we sought to derive and validate a prediction rule for identifying heavy consumers of alcohol. Eighty-five percent of eligible men on electoral rolls in Caerphilly, Wales (derivation set, N = 2512) and 90{\%} of eligible men on the practice lists of 16 Speedwell, England, general practitioners participated (validation set, N = 2348). Alcohol consumption was assessed by questionnaire with heavy alcohol consumption defined as the top 10{\%} of the Caerphilly population's alcohol usage (>525 cc ethanol per week). The prediction rule, Score = (mean corpuscular volume x 1.00) + (body mass index x 0.31) + (systolic blood pressure x 0.08) + (HDL-cholesterol x 9.24) + (fasting triglyceride x 2.20) was derived by multiple linear regression in the Caerphilly cohort and validated in the Speedwell cohort. Comparing the lower 20{\%} of the Score distribution with the upper 5{\%}, likelihood ratios increased from 0.15 to 5.29 and 0.06 to 7.42 in the Caerphilly and Speedwell cohorts, respectively. Having a score of 136.30 or greater yielded a relative risk of being a heavy drinker of 23.1 (95{\%} CI = 10.1-53.0) in Caerphilly and 99.3 (95{\%} CI = 12.8-769.5) in Speedwell. The derived prediction rule is a valid diagnostic aid to help clinicians identify heavy alcohol consumers.",
author = "Lichtenstein, {Michael J} and Burger, {M. C.} and Yarnell, {J. W G} and Elwood, {P. C.} and Sweetnam, {P. M.}",
year = "1989",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "13",
pages = "626--630",
journal = "Alcoholism: Clinical and Experimental Research",
issn = "0145-6008",
publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell",
number = "5",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Derivation and validation of a prediction rule for identifying heavy consumers of alcohol

AU - Lichtenstein, Michael J

AU - Burger, M. C.

AU - Yarnell, J. W G

AU - Elwood, P. C.

AU - Sweetnam, P. M.

PY - 1989

Y1 - 1989

N2 - Using two population-based cohorts of men aged 45-59, we sought to derive and validate a prediction rule for identifying heavy consumers of alcohol. Eighty-five percent of eligible men on electoral rolls in Caerphilly, Wales (derivation set, N = 2512) and 90% of eligible men on the practice lists of 16 Speedwell, England, general practitioners participated (validation set, N = 2348). Alcohol consumption was assessed by questionnaire with heavy alcohol consumption defined as the top 10% of the Caerphilly population's alcohol usage (>525 cc ethanol per week). The prediction rule, Score = (mean corpuscular volume x 1.00) + (body mass index x 0.31) + (systolic blood pressure x 0.08) + (HDL-cholesterol x 9.24) + (fasting triglyceride x 2.20) was derived by multiple linear regression in the Caerphilly cohort and validated in the Speedwell cohort. Comparing the lower 20% of the Score distribution with the upper 5%, likelihood ratios increased from 0.15 to 5.29 and 0.06 to 7.42 in the Caerphilly and Speedwell cohorts, respectively. Having a score of 136.30 or greater yielded a relative risk of being a heavy drinker of 23.1 (95% CI = 10.1-53.0) in Caerphilly and 99.3 (95% CI = 12.8-769.5) in Speedwell. The derived prediction rule is a valid diagnostic aid to help clinicians identify heavy alcohol consumers.

AB - Using two population-based cohorts of men aged 45-59, we sought to derive and validate a prediction rule for identifying heavy consumers of alcohol. Eighty-five percent of eligible men on electoral rolls in Caerphilly, Wales (derivation set, N = 2512) and 90% of eligible men on the practice lists of 16 Speedwell, England, general practitioners participated (validation set, N = 2348). Alcohol consumption was assessed by questionnaire with heavy alcohol consumption defined as the top 10% of the Caerphilly population's alcohol usage (>525 cc ethanol per week). The prediction rule, Score = (mean corpuscular volume x 1.00) + (body mass index x 0.31) + (systolic blood pressure x 0.08) + (HDL-cholesterol x 9.24) + (fasting triglyceride x 2.20) was derived by multiple linear regression in the Caerphilly cohort and validated in the Speedwell cohort. Comparing the lower 20% of the Score distribution with the upper 5%, likelihood ratios increased from 0.15 to 5.29 and 0.06 to 7.42 in the Caerphilly and Speedwell cohorts, respectively. Having a score of 136.30 or greater yielded a relative risk of being a heavy drinker of 23.1 (95% CI = 10.1-53.0) in Caerphilly and 99.3 (95% CI = 12.8-769.5) in Speedwell. The derived prediction rule is a valid diagnostic aid to help clinicians identify heavy alcohol consumers.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=0024433157&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=0024433157&partnerID=8YFLogxK

M3 - Article

C2 - 2688460

AN - SCOPUS:0024433157

VL - 13

SP - 626

EP - 630

JO - Alcoholism: Clinical and Experimental Research

JF - Alcoholism: Clinical and Experimental Research

SN - 0145-6008

IS - 5

ER -