Are Trends in Dementia Incidence Associated with Compression in Morbidity? Evidence from the Framingham Heart Study

Objectives Several epidemiological studies suggest declining trends in dementia over the last three decades with both decreasing age-specific prevalence and incidence. There is limited data on whether this delayed clinical onset is accompanied by a shorter postdiagnosis survival. Methods A total of 5,205 participants from the Framingham Original and Offspring cohorts were studied. Four epochs were considered from 1977-1984 to 2004-2008. Gender and education adjusted 5-year mortality risks were estimated using delayed entry Cox models with the earliest epoch as reference category. Stratified analyses by sex, education, and age were undertaken. A nested case control study of 317 dementia cases and 317 controls matched on age, gender and epoch was initiated. Results In the whole sample, 5-year mortality risk has decreased with time, it was 33% lower in the last epoch compared to the earliest. In the 317 persons who developed dementia, age at onset increased (1.5 years/epoch), and years alive with dementia decreased (1 year/epoch) over time. We observed however, a decreased adjusted relative mortality risk (by 18%) in persons with dementia in 1986-1991 compared to 1977-1983 and no significant change from then to the latest epoch. The nested case control study suggested in matched controls that 5-year mortality relative risk had increased by 60% in the last epoch compared to Epoch 1. Discussion In the FHS, in the last 30 years, disease duration in persons with dementia has decreased. However, age-adjusted mortality risk has slightly decreased after 1977-1983. Consequences of such trends on dementia prevalence should be investigated.